Toronto Housing Market News (Oct 22, 2025) | A Buyer's Market vs. A Future Supply Crisis

Published: October 22, 2025

Welcome to your mid-October update on the Greater Toronto Area housing market. This month, the market is defined by a striking paradox: what's happening right now is the complete opposite of what's building for the near future.

Currently, buyers are in the most dominant position we've seen in years, benefiting from lower prices and a surplus of inventory. However, a series of alarming new reports show that new housing construction has ground to a halt, setting the stage for a severe supply crisis in the coming years. This post will break down all the latest reports from TRREB, Royal LePage, Urbanation, and Civic Action.

The Current Landscape: A "Firmly" Buyer's Market

If you are a buyer, the headlines from the past few weeks have been encouraging. The Royal LePage Q3 2025 Home Price Update, released last week, confirms the market is "firmly in favour of buyers." After years of sellers dictating terms, the tables have turned.

This sentiment is backed by the numbers. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's (TRREB) September report showed the average selling price in the GTA was **$1,059,377**, a drop of **4.7%** compared to September 2024. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI), which adjusts for the types of homes sold, was down by **5.5%**.

Royal LePage's data paints a similar picture, showing the Q3 aggregate price in the GTA fell **3.5% year-over-year** to $1,114,900. Properties are also spending significantly more time on the market, giving buyers time to think, negotiate, and perform due diligence. This is a stark contrast to the frantic, over-asking sales that defined the past few years.

The Condo Conundrum: A Deep Dive into the Price Gap

The "buyer's market" is most pronounced in the condo sector. Royal LePage's report noted a significant **7.4% year-over-year price drop** for median condos in the GTA, bringing the price to $668,700.

But the real story is the widening chasm between the *resale* condo market and the *new build* (pre-construction) market. A new report from real estate analysis firm Urbanation highlights this disparity. It found that the GTHA new condo market is on track for its worst year for sales in 35 years.

Here’s the key stat: Urbanation found that the average price for unsold units in *newly completed* projects was **$1,199 per square foot**. In sharp contrast, the price for comparable *resale* units in recently completed buildings was just **$867 per square foot**.

The Ticking Time Bomb: Housing Construction Grinds to a Halt

While today's buyers enjoy more options and lower prices, a bombshell report released today is warning of a dire future. A new study from Civic Action reveals that new housing construction has effectively stalled across the GTHA.

The report found a shocking imbalance:

• Active Projects: There are only **481** housing projects actively under construction in the GTHA.
• Stalled Projects: There are **2,220** projects that are fully approved but are on hold indefinitely due to financial issues and high costs.

This means that for every 12 housing projects that get approved, only one actually has a shovel in the ground. These stalled projects represent over **1.2 million potential homes** that are stuck in limbo. This crisis is confirmed by Urbanation, which reported that 10 condo projects (2,499 units) were cancelled in Q3 alone, bringing the 2025 total to a record high.

As Urbanation's CEO, Shaun Hildebrand, stated, "The lack of activity occurring today will surely lead to a lack of supply in a couple years, helping to restart the engine for the market."

The Economic Factor: All Eyes on the Bank of Canada

This entire situation is unfolding against the backdrop of a new monetary policy. The Bank of Canada's decision in September to cut the overnight rate to 2.50% provided some much-needed psychological relief for buyers and helped create a floor for the market.

All eyes are now on the Bank's next announcement on Wednesday, October 29, 2025. This announcement will include the full Monetary Policy Report, which will provide the Bank's outlook on inflation and economic growth. While many analysts expect a hold, the language in the report will be critical in setting the tone for the rest of the fall and winter market.

What This All Means for You

For Buyers:

This is your moment. You have leverage, choice, and lower prices. The window, however, may be temporary. The September rate cut has already provided a floor. Don't sit on the sidelines waiting for a "crash" that may be offset by the coming supply crisis. This is the time to negotiate hard and lock in a property while you have the power to do so.

For Sellers:

Pricing is not an art right now; it's a science. You *must* be priced correctly against the current resale inventory. You are not competing with the market of 2022; you are competing with the other listings on your street *today*. A sharp price and excellent presentation are the keys to a successful sale in this market.

For Investors:

The long-term story is clear: a massive supply shortage is on the horizon. The current freeze in construction all but guarantees a squeeze on rental supply and resale inventory in 2-3 years. The resale condo market, with its significant discount compared to new builds, presents a clear opportunity for long-term holds.