As of mid-November 2025, the Greater Toronto Area housing market is defined by a stark and urgent paradox: the conditions benefiting buyers today are the very same factors fueling a severe housing supply crisis for tomorrow.

A recent analysis from October highlighted this split, and new economic data has only sharpened the divide. On one hand, buyers are in the most dominant position seen in years. On the other, a stall in new construction is setting the stage for a massive inventory shortage.

Here is a breakdown of this two-speed market, updated with the latest key economic developments.

Part 1: The Current Landscape (A "Firmly" Buyer's Market)

The late-October analysis that the GTA is "firmly in favour of buyers" remains truer than ever. This sentiment is backed by data from earlier this fall:

  • Prices Are Down: The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported the average September selling price was $1,059,377, a 4.7% drop year-over-year.
  • More Leverage: Royal LePage's Q3 data showed a similar 3.5% year-over-year decline in the aggregate GTA price to $1,114,900, with properties sitting on the market much longer.

This buyer's market was just given another significant boost. On October 29, the Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate again, lowering it by 25 basis points to 2.25%.

This was the second consecutive rate cut, following a cut in September. The Bank cited ongoing economic weakness, a soft labour market, and structural damage from the U.S. trade war as its reasons. For buyers, this means variable-rate mortgages are now even cheaper, providing further relief and strengthening their negotiating position.

This trend is most extreme in the condo market, where a 7.4% year-over-year price drop was reported for Q3. Analysis from Urbanation revealed a massive 38% price gap between new pre-construction units (averaging $1,199/sq ft) and nearly identical resale units ($867/sq ft), freezing the new-build market.

Part 2: The Ticking Time Bomb (A Future Supply Crisis)

While buyers enjoy lower prices and fresh rate cuts, a bombshell report from Civic Action released in October laid bare a catastrophic failure in new housing construction.

The report found a shocking imbalance in the GTHA:

  • Active Projects: Only 481 housing projects are actively under construction.
  • Stalled Projects: A staggering 2,220 projects are fully approved but are on hold indefinitely due to high costs and financial non-viability.

This means for every 12 projects approved, only one is in the ground. These stalled projects represent over 1.2 million potential homes that are stuck in limbo.

The Bank of Canada's new Monetary Policy Report confirms why this is happening. The same weak economy and trade uncertainty that triggered the Bank to cut rates is what is making these large-scale projects too risky for developers to start.

What This All Means for You Today (November 12, 2025)

The original article's advice from October is now even more critical:

  • For Buyers: This is your moment, amplified. You have low prices, high inventory, and the tailwind of a fresh rate cut. However, the Bank of Canada also signaled on Oct 29 that it is likely done cutting, suggesting rates have now bottomed out. The future supply crisis is not a theory; it's being caused right now. This window of peak leverage is open but will not last.
  • For Sellers: You must be priced sharply and scientifically against the current resale inventory. Buyers are selective, and the new, lower borrowing costs only make them more so.
  • For Investors: The long-term story is crystal clear. The current economic weakness is directly choking off future supply, all but guaranteeing a price squeeze in the coming years. The resale condo market, with its 38% discount to new builds, remains a glaring opportunity.

In short, the very economic headwinds that are providing buyers with a temporary "golden window" today are simultaneously guaranteeing the "future supply crisis" of tomorrow.